Remember that all the guys in F1 are among the very best drivers in the world. None of them are bad in any way. And they all CAN overtake!
As I see it there are subtle differences that decide the outcome. And as rules change some are favored others not. Then there's psychology. Here is where the very best stand out from the rest.
Alonso and Vettel are mentally extremely strong, and very seldom loose their cool. OTOH Hamilton gets a little too wild now and then, I think he's been frustrated for a long time now. Whilst Alonso just never ever gives up, he makes the most of what he has always.
As long as RedBull can keep the best car designer (Newey) I think Vettel will stay there, and he will probably beat all F1 records. Webber has struggled with this year's tires. He's improved lately, but I stongly doubt he will be a threat to Vettel in 2012. He is also near the end of his career, and probably feels more pressure. Vettel will be even more relaxed next year, get everything developed in his direction... he'll win easily also in 2012. McLaren and Ferrari will be close and get some wins. But Vettel is extremely focused and ALWAYS gets the best out of his car.
Then there's Button. I really REALLY admire this guy! Without doubt the nicest guy in F1! Always positive, motivated, and never does stupid maneuvers or bend the rules. A total gentleman! The very opposite of Schuey! He'd rather crash than give up a pass or get passed...
Before 2011 Hamilton most of the time always had that little extra as to speed, especially in qualifying. But Button has shown this year that he is the class of his field (maybe except Perez?) when it comes to making the most out of his tires and make them last. And with changing weather conditons he is the BIG master! I think he was prepared to be #2 in McLaren, and just happy if he could stay there until retirement. But he has grown now and managed to regularly beat Lewis. This gives self confidence and status in the team. I feel he has gone from 2nd to 1st driver at McLaren now. And well deserved to!!!
Hamilton needs to get his feet back on the ground, be more humble and stop trying to make passes which would never ever work out... I mean at the Casino Lewis??? C'mon!
Oh! And start using the mirrors!
Again, Vettel is a fantastic driver! And a very intelligent and positive person also:
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/95246